A disciplined weekly review of the forces shaping risk and return.

Key Points

• Markets rebound this week with the S&P 500 up 3.7%
• Unemployment rate slight uptick to 4.4%
• Intel and Tesla join forces for Tesla Terafab
• Waymo passes 500k weekly robotaxi rides

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Markets

• Markets rebounded heavily this week with the S&P 500 up 3.7%
• Crude comes back down slightly from the highs down ~11%
• Gold still climbing with a 2.1% gain this week coming in at 54.3% for the year.

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Macro

Unemployment Rises (Slightly)

“So What?”

With rates still somewhat elevated, the pressure on employment continues to climb with a 4.4% unemployment rate. On the flip side, inflation is being taken seriously by the fed, which is good.

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Equities

Informational purposes, opinion, or commentary only. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk. See full disclosures at the end of this post.

Intel (INTC) and Tesla (TSLA) Join Forces

From X.com:

Intel is proud to join the Terafab project with @SpaceX, @xAI, and @Tesla to help refactor silicon fab technology.

Our ability to design, fabricate, and package ultra-high-performance chips at scale will help accelerate Terafab’s aim to produce 1 TW/year of compute to power future advances in AI and robotics. It was fun hosting

@elonmusk at Intel this past weekend!

Intel Status Update from X.com

Intel shares moved sharply following the reported development, though short-term price movements can be volatile and may not reflect long-term fundamentals.

Combined with Intel’s decision to repurchase equity in its Ireland fab, the announcement may suggest continued strategic activity, though the business implications remain uncertain.

Waymo Grows to 500k Weekly Rides

From TechCrunch:

Waymo’s skyrocketing ridership in one chart | TechCrunch

Waymo is owned by Alphabet (GOOG). In my view, autonomous-driving advances could improve transportation safety over time, though adoption, regulation, and real-world performance remain important variables.

These company references are included for general market commentary only. Developments may not materially affect long-term fundamentals, and individual securities can be volatile, subject to execution risk, competition, regulatory risk, and valuation risk.

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Education

How Bonds Work in Plain English

A bond is simply a loan. When you buy a bond, you are lending money to a government or a company. In return, the borrower promises to pay you interest and give your original money back at a set date in the future.

Bonds work in a straightforward way. You invest a certain amount, called the principal. The bond pays you interest—usually twice a year—based on a fixed rate. When the bond matures, you get your principal back. This makes bonds more predictable than stocks, which can rise or fall sharply based on company performance or investor sentiment.

Bond prices can move up and down before maturity. The main reason is changes in interest rates. When interest rates rise, existing bonds become less attractive and their prices fall. When rates fall, existing bonds become more valuable and prices rise. Credit quality and inflation expectations also affect bond prices.

For investors, bonds play an important role. They can provide steady income, reduce overall portfolio volatility, and act as a stabilizer during stock market downturns. While bonds may not offer the same growth potential as stocks, they help balance risk and support long‑term financial plans.

Bonds can still lose value—especially when interest rates rise, credit conditions weaken, or inflation erodes purchasing power—and they are not guaranteed to offset stock losses in every environment.

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Wealth

The best Reason to Keep Business and Personal Finances Separate? Better Decision-Making

There are many reasons to keep business and personal finances separate. One of my favorite benefits is to help the decision-making process.

“What gets measured gets managed.” But in order to be measurable it must be clean. Comingled personal and business finances make the measurement and analysis an exercise in synchronized swimming with cats. It’s just painful for everyone involved.

What you end up with is a waste of time.

There is a reason that it is standard practice to separate personal and business financials, and why vast majority of successful business owners do this. It allows the pursuit of quality decisions and outcomes.

Oh, and the IRS likes it too.

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Quote of The Week

To understand is to know what to do.

Wittgenstein

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Michael’s Corner

Latticework of Mental Models​

Having a latticework of mental models ready to go is one of the best methods of leveling up our thinking and avoiding disaster. Depending on your overarching goals in life and what sort of business you might be in, it’s a good idea to have at least 10-20 mental models ready to go.

My favorites are inversion, first principles thinking, probability, and opportunity cost.

From Charlie Munger:

Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ’em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form.

You’ve got to have models in your head. And you’ve got to array your experience—both vicarious and direct—on this latticework of models. You may have noticed students who just try to remember and pound back what is remembered. Well, they fail in school and in life. You’ve got to hang experience on a latticework of models in your head.

What are the models? Well, the first rule is that you’ve got to have multiple models—because if you just have one or two that you’re using, the nature of human psychology is such that you’ll torture reality so that it fits your models, or at least you’ll think it does.

Charlie Munger — USC Business School 1994

Have a great weekend.

— Michael

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Disclosures

This newsletter is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Walsh Financial is a Registered Investment Adviser.

The content is general in nature and is not intended to be advice tailored to any particular person, circumstances, or investment objectives. Any references to individual companies, securities, sectors, asset classes, market indexes, commodities, or economic and market conditions are for general commentary and discussion only and should not be construed as a recommendation or a call to take any specific action. Walsh Financial and/or clients may hold positions in securities mentioned.

This information is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax, or insurance advice. Readers should consult with their financial advisor and/or other qualified professionals regarding their specific situation and the then-current applicable laws and rules before making any financial decisions.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This newsletter may include opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements (including views on economic conditions, market trends, or broad investment themes). Such views are as of the date published, may change without notice, and there is no guarantee that any opinions or forecasts will prove to be correct.

Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, Walsh Financial does not warrant its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.

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