A disciplined weekly review of the forces shaping risk and return.

Key Points

• Markets continue their rebound with S&P 500 up 3.2%.
• Crude falls 4.4%
• Core PCE steady at 0.4% MoM
• ASML earnings beat and positive outlooks for Semis

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Markets

• Equities continue their rebound with the S&P 500 up 3.2% and the Nasdaq 100 up 5% in one week.
• Copper rose 4.8% this week in an unusual move.
• Gold rose 0.5%, but lagged broader risk assets.

Source: Koyfin, data through April 16, 2026.

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Macro

Core PCE 0.4% MoM

Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is the preferred measure that the Federal Reserve uses to gauge inflation.

The latest core PCE reading came in at 0.4% month over month, leaving year-over-year inflation at 2.97%—still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

On this measure, inflation remains above pre-pandemic norms.

So What?

Here are the main takeaways:

• Inflation is still sticky
• But markets looked past inflation concerns this week

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of maximum employment and inflation control is tough, especially with their sole tool: the federal funds rate.

The Fed appears to be taking inflation seriously and remains cautious about the timing of rate cuts.

They are also looking at employment levels (which I cover here).

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Equities

ASML Holdings (ASML) Earnings

For those of you who don’t know, ASML “. . . provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. ” (Source: Koyfin)

ASML is an important supplier to advanced semiconductor manufacturing, but the main point here is some quotes I want to highlight from their earnings call this past week:

Looking ahead with respect to the market, the growth outlook for the semiconductor industry continues to solidify, driven primarily by AI-related infrastructure investment. These investments are increasing demand for advanced Logic and Memory chips in many areas. And for the foreseeable future, demand will continue to outpace supply.

Christophe Fouquet, ASML Holding N.V. – Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Wednesday, April 15, 2026

And:

In the Memory business, many customers have commented that they are sold out for the remainder of the year and that they expect the supply limitation to persist beyond 2026, despite their plans to add significant capacity. In the Logic business, our customers are adding capacity across multiple advanced nodes to support demand while continuing to ramp the 2-nanometer node in support of next-generation HPC and mobile application. We also expect supply limitation across those advanced nodes beyond 2026. Both our Memory and Logic customers are responding to this unprecedented demand by increasing capital expenditures and accelerating capacity expansion plans this year and beyond. Those investments are supported by long-term agreements with their own customers.

Christophe Fouquet, ASML Holding N.V. – Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Wednesday, April 15, 2026

While management’s demand commentary remains constructive, semiconductor demand can be cyclical, capital spending can be delayed, and company-level outcomes can diverge from industry expectations. This is commentary, not a recommendation.

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Education

The Difference Between Investing and Speculating

At a high level, investing is usually grounded in a longer time horizon and underlying business fundamentals, while speculating is typically shorter-term and more dependent on price movement, sentiment, or technical factors.

This table provides a general framework for thinking about investing vs speculating:

	Investment	Speculation
Time Horizon	Long-term	Short-Term, less than one year
Level of Risk	Moderate	High
Investor Attitude	Cautious, conservative1	Aggressive
Decision Criteria	Fundamentals, Basic Factors	Technical Charts, Markets Psychology, Opinion

The rise of speculation comes from the decrease in patience and rise in ease of access to information:

Do these shorter holding periods help investors and speculators increase their returns? That’s a discussion for another time.

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Wealth

How Much of Your Net Worth Should Be Tied to Your Business?²

It depends on time.

When most entrepreneurs start out, almost all of their net worth is in the business. Even for seasoned entrepreneurs, a large percentage of their net worth goes into the business.

Over time, net worth should transfer from the business to the personal finances of the owner.

Ideally, by the time the owner is ready to sell or retire, most of the economic surplus of the business has been transferred over time to the owner. It’s a rare situation where the owner makes no profit while owning the business, only to sell after a period of time.

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Quote of The Week

Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it.

Albert Einstein

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Michael’s Corner

The Multidisciplinary Approach​

Charlie Munger had this great idea of bringing many main understandings across many disciplines under one roof. That way it would help the wielder to understand and think clearly in a very powerful way.

If thinking along one line of discipline is additive (example: psychology), then the multidisciplinary approach weighs the situation across disciplines, creating a multiplicative effect.

Psychology < Psychology x History x Physics.

The main benefit of the multidisciplinary approach is not cleverness but avoiding stupidity.

If you skillfully follow the multidisciplinary path, you will never wish to come back. It would be like cutting off your hands.

Charlie Munger

— Michael

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PS

• If you’re getting this by email, feel free to reply with any questions, thoughts, or concerns. I personally read and respond to every message.

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Disclosures

This newsletter is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Walsh Financial is a Registered Investment Adviser.

The content is general in nature and is not intended to be advice tailored to any particular person, circumstances, or investment objectives. Any references to individual companies, securities, sectors, asset classes, market indexes, commodities, or economic and market conditions are for general commentary and discussion only and should not be construed as a recommendation or a call to take any specific action. Walsh Financial and/or clients may hold positions in securities mentioned.

This information is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, tax, or insurance advice. Readers should consult with their financial advisor and/or other qualified professionals regarding their specific situation and the then-current applicable laws and rules before making any financial decisions.

All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This newsletter may include opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements (including views on economic conditions, market trends, or broad investment themes). Such views are as of the date published, may change without notice, and there is no guarantee that any opinions or forecasts will prove to be correct.

Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, Walsh Financial does not warrant its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.

Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

For additional information about Walsh Financial, including our Form ADV and important disclosures, please visit the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure (IAPD) page at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/337759.

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Footnotes

1. This is a general statement. In my opinion, an investor can be very aggressive while still thinking long-term and holding their investments for well over a year. ↩︎
2. Should is a dangerous word, and there are always obvious exceptions to the rule. ↩︎